MANIFOLD
When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit? (Quarters)
4
Ṁ225Ṁ242
2029
3%
2026 Q1
5%
2026 Q2
11%
2026 Q3
11%
2026 Q4
11%
2027 Q1
11%
2027 Q2
11%
2027 Q3
11%
2027 Q4
27%
Other

The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings. This question includes the Long March 10A.

  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Whether Long March 10B will be included in this market depends on whether it is genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package, or a new rocket with the same name. The creator will make this determination when more information becomes available.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Does this include Long March 10B?

@Narnianknight I think we need to wait for more information. Is it genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package? Or is it just a new rocket they have decided to put the same name on?

@JoshuaWilkes I recognise that this is an inadequate response given the context. Let me do some more research in a few more hours and I'll make a call

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy