ChatGPT has been the #1 free app for some time now. Will it still be #1 on March 31? Resolves based on https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-free. If ChatGTP is ranked as #1 the first time I access the page on 2025-03-31, ET, likely between 6am and 12pm, Resolves YES. If a different app is ranked #1, Resolves NO. If the URL is unavailable for some reason, I will check the Top Free Apps list on my iPhone, which generally displays the same list. If the list on my phone is also unavailable for some reason, and there is no good-faith ability to retrieve the ranking on that day, Resolves N/A.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 71% chance (23 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).

Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)

MANIFOLD

Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)

Ṁ300Ṁ607

Mar 31

71%

chance

ALL

ChatGPT has been the #1 free app for some time now. Will it still be #1 on March 31?

Resolves based on https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-free.

If ChatGTP is ranked as #1 the first time I access the page on 2025-03-31, ET, likely between 6am and 12pm, Resolves YES.
If a different app is ranked #1, Resolves NO.
If the URL is unavailable for some reason, I will check the Top Free Apps list on my iPhone, which generally displays the same list.
If the list on my phone is also unavailable for some reason, and there is no good-faith ability to retrieve the ranking on that day, Resolves N/A.

Market context

Technology

OpenAI

ChatGPT

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 64% order

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24 days til the end of the month.

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27 days til the end of the month.