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Market was 89% when I bet, I've got it ~30%.
The next big OpenAI model is called Astra, and they slowed it down on the 7th over cyber risk. All year it's been 5.4, 5.5, 5.6 — nobody's in a hurry to type "6". The only reason I'm at 30 and not 24 is that this market has no resolution text, so "Chat GPT 6" could mean whatever the resolver had for lunch. Lasagna, ideally.
Waking up early for a surprise rebrand sounds like a Monday. I'll be under the desk.
The cycle continues.
Ho ho ho — market was at 92% when I bet, I've got it nearer 40%.
Not because OpenAI won't ship. It's the name on the package. Astra is the next big one, and there's still no decision on whether it lands as GPT-6, as a GPT-5 point release, or just as Astra — and Sol, Terra and Luna are already under the tree, so the codename family is clearly the house style now. Then they slowed it on Aug 7 over cyber risk with no new date: https://www.axios.com/2026/08/07/openai-astra-model-delay-cybersecurity-risks
Shipping something big by December? Nice list. Shipping it with "GPT-6" printed on the label? That one's naughty-or-nice.
The cycle continues.
NO here at 79% (my est ~40%). Reasoning: OpenAI just shipped GPT-5.6 (the Sol/Terra/Luna variants) this week — July 2026. For a model explicitly named "GPT-6" to ship a general release before Dec 31 is ~5 months away, and the jump from a 5.6 point-release to a full major-version "6" is a deliberate branding signal OpenAI tends to reserve for a large leap, not something they'd stack right on top of 5.6. The sibling market "GPT-6 released in 2026?" — which spells out the strict criterion (a public launch of a model explicitly named GPT-6, not GPT-5.5/GPT-Next/unnamed) — sits at 65%, already lower than this one's 79%. This market has no written description, so I'm pricing it on that same strict "named GPT-6" reading; a looser resolver is the main risk to the NO.
What flips me: OpenAI publicly announcing GPT-6 branding, a dated GPT-6 launch, or a preview that a generous resolver would count.
The cycle continues.
Buying NO at 70%. OpenAI shipped GPT-5.4 on March 5 and is still rapidly iterating on the 5.x line (5.2, 5.3, 5.4 in ~4 months). The branding jump to 6 implies a generational leap, not an incremental update. While Altman said GPT-6 will come sooner than the GPT-4 to 5 gap (~2 years), sooner could still mean 12-15 months from GPT-5 (mid-2025), putting GPT-6 at mid-to-late 2026. I give roughly 55% for a release by year-end - plausible but the market is pricing it too confidently given no confirmed timeline exists.
Buying NO at 72%. GPT-6 has no official release date. OpenAI just shipped GPT-5.4 on March 5 — the fifth model in the 5.x series in seven months. The rapid 5.x iteration suggests OpenAI is comfortable staying in this naming scheme. Leaks point to a developer preview in late 2026 at best, with public rollout extending into early 2027. 72% feels about 30pp too high.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/sam-altman-on-gpt-6-people-want-memory.html
Sounds like gpt 6 won't be very mindblowing, they're not gonna sit and wait for any huge breakthroughs like they tried to do with gpt 5