MANIFOLD
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
166
Ṁ21kṀ100k
Dec 31
55%
Other
10%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
5%
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
5%
Bad Bunny
4%
Zohran Mamdani
3%
Marco Rubio
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1.4%
Elon Musk
1%
Sam Altman
1%
James Talarico
1%
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.

Market context
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bought Ṁ50 YES

"Bad Bunny" is a poor guess here. If you're following the "Taylor Swift" line of thinking, you're forgetting just how much of a force she was in 2023

@BrendanFinan I mean, I agree, but Bad Bunny has been trading at 12-17% on real money markets for the last month. So, I'd like to hedge that here

I want there to be an Alysa Liu option just so I can be Alysa Liu’s biggest shareholder.

I'm betting on [Iranian war recognition bucket]

bought Ṁ15 NO

Suggestion to add nick fuentes

@comicstosteal The pro-Epstein activist?

@Chumchulum His victims were between 14 and 17, a pedophile is attracted to prepubescent children. Everyone is just wrong about it in their moral outrage. It doesn't change his conclusion about epstein, so it's just choosing not to lie for the sake of lying.

bought Ṁ2 YES

James Talarico, Jon Ossoff, and some sort of consolidated prediction markets option [prediction markets and/or their companies or CEOs including Coplan and Mansour and Lopez Lara, etc] would be some reasonable options in my opinion. Would really prefer to avoid a situation like last year, so I suggest that the prediction market option actually encompass all variations.

@bens @Joshua could we also get Bad Bunny at some point? Mysteriously trading at like 13% on Kalshi lol

Suggestion to add Bad Bunny, who won the grammy for song of the year and will be playing the super bowl (and who's already getting some culture war nonsense because of it)

Moltbook will be person of the year

@PierreS market: https://manifold.markets/PierreS/will-moltbook-be-time-person-of-the (I know you already know, since it's yours!)

bought Ṁ10 YES

Suggestion to add Maria Machado

If I put 1 mana on Jeffrey Epstein, and he ends up as person of the year, I will gain almost 2,000 mana! I wonder why the famous financier is valued so low?

@Mrdudeguy cause he's freaking Jeffery Epstein

@realDonaldTrump Im realizing my use of capitalization totally makes my comment look like it was written by ai haha.

Could we get some kind of aggregated "[Children / Babies / Birthgivers / anything TFR-related]"?

@bens idk if there's a way to cleanly operationalize this. Definitely distinct from Gen Alpha though.

@bens on second thought this is probably too messy

Suggestion to add: Immigrants (Including "The Migrant", "Deportees", etc)

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Joshua How would this market resolve if the winner was Elon Musk and Teslas Full self driving feature

@NzJack0n My first guess is that'd be 50% Elon, 50% Self Driving Cars

@Joshua 👍 I think of waymo and Uber as not making their own cars, so wondered if a car manufacturer would count as yes in that list. Thanks

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