The Volkswagen ID. Buzz will surpass 5,000 US sales in Q3 of 2025
10
100Ṁ222
2026
35%
chance

The Volkswagen ID. Buzz is an electric minivan inspired by the classic VW Bus. This market predicts whether its Q3 2025 sales will surpass 5,000 units. Sales figures will be verified through official Volkswagen press releases or reputable automotive news outlets, similar to the following: https://media.vw.com/releases/1861

  • Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that the market will resolve based on Volkswagen ID. Buzz US sales during Q3 2025 only. This means the 5,000 unit threshold applies to sales from July 1, 2025, to September 30, 2025, and not cumulative year-to-date sales as was previously stated in the market description.

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To confirm, this is of course sales ytd for Volkswagen of America only?

@FlorianN6sA sorry for the delay here, yes that is correct. I'll update the title here. If I need to do anything else, please let me know! I'm still new to this so not sure if I need to update the odds as well...

While it is unclear whether we will see continued growth in EV sales overall, "van life" presents an interesting place for EV sales to grow. A big challenge with existing vans is the retrofitting of a functioning electrical system. While their range is still low, EV vans present an interesting opportunity to make a more elegant experience possible. One of the more interesting options is the VW ID Buzz. I am uncertain if sales will turn around here, but I expect this to be a canary in the coal mine of sorts for the wider EV "van life" market.

An interesting detail relevant to this market in particular is the fact VW is discounting this model to move more units. Given this dynamic, it is more likely that 5,000 units could be reached (as opposed to the 1,900 of Q1 2025). That said, it is unclear how tariffs will affect the sales of the Buzz.

The 5000 unit threshold is year-to-date, so even if it only moves another 1,900 units in each of Q2 and Q3 it easily resolves YES.

@eapache I did not intend this to be YTD. In the title I specified Q3. Is there anything I can do to make that clearer?

sold Ṁ9 YES

@JimmyCerone The market description explicitly includes the words “year to date”…

@eapache Ah shoot I was only looking at the title. I'll get that updated, my apologies. Still new to this and struggling to get the details right!

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