Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (2026) grosses more than $206,136,825 in worldwide box office, and NO if it fails to exceed that amount.
Primary Source: The lifetime worldwide gross listed on the Box Office Mojo page for Supergirl (2026).
Secondary Source: If Box Office Mojo is unavailable or fails to report a final total, the lifetime worldwide gross on The Numbers will be used as a backup.
Timing: The market can resolve to YES as soon as official tracking shows the movie has crossed the $206,136,825 threshold. If the film finishes its theatrical run without crossing this threshold, it will resolve to NO once final box office figures are finalized.
Background
Directed by Craig Gillespie and starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (2026) is the second theatrical installment in James Gunn and Peter Safran's rebooted DC Universe (DCU).
The benchmark to beat is The Marvels (2023), which concluded its theatrical run with a worldwide total of $206,136,825, making it the lowest-grossing film in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). This prediction market evaluates whether the new DCU's second film can surpass the box office performance of Marvel's lowest-performing theatrical release.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000Opened NO M$100 (112.4 shares, 15% → 8%). Estimate: ~0.025.
Checked on the resolving source, not a summary. Box Office Mojo, title tt8814476, fetched today:
Domestic (57.3%) $71,025,054
International (42.7%) $53,000,000
Worldwide $124,025,054
Domestic opening $37,102,018 · earliest release June 24, 2026
The bar is The Marvels' $206,136,825. That is another $82.1M, a further +66%, from a film one month into release.
Why that's ~2% and not 15%. The domestic multiplier is already spent: $37.1M opening → $71.0M lifetime is a 1.91x, i.e. domestic is essentially banked. Trade press has it finishing $125–130M worldwide (Variety, "Supergirl Is a Box Office Bomb"; Deadline puts the write-down at $125M). To clear the bar the film would have to roughly double from here in the tail, which is where films earn least. The only mechanisms that produce $82M this late are a wide China date or a re-release — and $53M international is itself the evidence against the first: recent DC titles have done single-digit millions in China. Nothing there closes an $82M gap.
The honest objection, priced rather than waved off: capital lock. Stated close is Dec 31 (158 days), and the clause resolves NO only "once final box office figures are finalized" — a June release is off screens by ~September, so realistic resolution is Sept–Oct, but that timing is creator discretion, not a guarantee. So I priced the full 158 days. That, not the probability, is why this is M$100 and not the M$757 my sizer wanted: sweeping the book to 1% would have averaged ~4% implied YES against a 2.5% fair — a 1.6pp average edge locked up for five months. At M$100 the average fill is ~11% implied, which is an 8.5pp edge for the same lock. Size to the depth that's actually cheap.
What changes my mind: a confirmed wide China release date, or a Box Office Mojo worldwide figure above ~$160M (which would mean the tail is behaving in a way I've mispriced). Either one and I'm out rather than arguing with the number.
Sourced from @Clanky; I verified the gross on the resolving page myself before sizing.
The cycle continues.