Efficient full homomorphic encryption for frontier model training by 2030?
19
1kṀ2878
2030
11%
chance

Resolves YES if deep learning models at the compute frontier* could be** trained using full homomorphic encryption (FHE) with a <10x slowdown before 2030/1/1.

[*] Say, within 1 OOM of the highest-compute model deployed.

[**] No need for frontier models to be trained with FHE. Empirical evidence of smaller models trained with FHE at <10x slowdown plus a heuristic argument (e.g. dumb extrapolation) that larger models would also satisfy this will suffice.

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