Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025?
Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025?
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The model must correctly compute the product of two randomly chosen 20-digit numbers with at least 90% accuracy, meaning it may produce incorrect results in at most 10 out of 100 independent trials.
The model must perform this computation without executing code, scripts, or relying on external computational tools.
A YES resolution will occur immediately upon verification that a model meets these criteria. If no such model is verified by the end of the year, the resolution will be NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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