Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?

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resolved Dec 20

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METR's 50%-time horizon doubling time trendline from more recent models indicates that a model released towards the end of 2025 will likely have a time horizon of over 4 hours. Will this come true?

See links for more details:
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SuvWoLaGiNjPDcA7d/metr-s-evaluation-of-gpt-5
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/deesrjitvXM4xYGZd/metr-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks

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Opus 4.5 seems to have landed close to the faster trendline!

https://xcancel.com/METR_Evals/status/2002203627377574113#m

@Jasonb I am not so sure yet that it is close to the faster trend line. If you look at the new graph posted by METR they say a doubling of 196 days. 196 days comes to 6.4 months so closer to the original 7 month doubling estimate.