How many more US government shutdowns will there be in Trumps second term? | Manifold

How many more US government shutdowns will there be in Trumps second term?

16

Ṁ1kṀ3.2k

2029

2.99 shutdowns

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

66%

>=2

52%

>=3

15%

>=4

10%

>=5

6%

>=6

Since market creation.

Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The first shutdown (occurring around market creation) is not counted in the total. For the market to resolve to ≥1, there would need to be a second shutdown during Trump's second term.

Market context

Trump's Second Term

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Just to confirm, the first one is not counted here?

@Quroe No it's not, for >=1 to resolve YES we'd need a second.

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