If a referendum that allows the state legislature to redraw Virginia's congressional map passes in Virginia before Nov 3, 2026, then this market resolves YES.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_Redistricting_Amendment
It is scheduled to be held on April 21 2026.
This market resolves based on whether the referendum passes, not on whether the redrawn map is actually used or survives legal challenges.
1,000I looked at your link. Based on the facts of the situation it seems destined to pass, since the people most likely to vote are empowering themselves by doing so.
This new meta is stupid, though. It's just adding yet another layer of sludge on top of all the other layers of sludge. Maybe we need to do away with the single member districts rule and enforce some kind of proportional representation from multi-member districts instead.