MANIFOLD
Will CA redistrict, and what will be the result?
11
Ṁ300Ṁ833
2030
42%
Redistricts // <20 Republicans over three cycles
31%
Redistricts // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles
13%
Redistricts // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles
6%
Redistricts // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles
5%
Redistricts // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles
3%
Redistricts // >35 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // <20 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles
0.1%
Does Not Redistrict // >35 Republicans over three cycles

This asks two questions:

  1. Will CA redistrict, as determined by /zax/will-california-pass-a-midcycle-red

  2. How many times will a Republican party member be elected to a CA seat in the US House of Representatives in total over the course of the 2026, 2028, and 2030 federal elections.

For context, there are currently 9 Republicans, so if this holds constant, there will be 27 over the course of the next three elections.

Market context
Elections
U.S. Congress
2028 US Presidential Election
2026 Midterms
California
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