Will Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?

MANIFOLD

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Nov 25

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14%

Te Pati Maori polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

Resolved

YES

Opportunity Party polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

resolves yes if TPM or Opportunity polls at 5.00% or more in 3 different polls (at least 2 different polling companies) in the 2026 Nov 7 NZ election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election#Table_of_polls

Polls accepted:

RNZ-Reid Research

taxpayer union-curia

roy morgan

the post/freshwater strategy

1news-verian

Talbot Mills

More polls may be accepted, if they are added to wikipedia and arent a result of vandalism.

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@mods plewse unresolve opportunity party. Thanks

@Jack1 done

@Jack1 did you resolve this too early? The only polls I see with Opportunity over 5% are all from Roy Morgan which doesn't satisfy the "at least 2 different polling companies" rule. Is there one I missed?