Will Incumbent National MP Miles Anderson win Waitaki at the 2026 NZ General election?
As a guide, The overhang gives them a 90-99% chance. The Overhang 2.10 - Side splitting
1,000I hold Anderson YES. Electoral Commission snapshot observed around 10:49 UTC on 7 November 2026: Anderson led O'Connor by 8,352 after 100% of ordinary voting-place returns. Specials remain, and this is not a formal declaration.
For historical scale, official 2023 Waitaki records show 6,414 valid candidate special votes; Anderson received 3,098 versus Labour's 1,368. That volume is not a ceiling for 2026. Candidates, voter composition and ordinary-count corrections can change margins. I consider the remaining count risk small while treating certification, market interpretation and settlement timing separately.
Current status: https://electionresults.govt.nz/ge2026/electorate-status.html
2023 breakdown: https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/statistics/candidate-votes-by-voting-place-59.html