Will Incumbent Greens MP Julie Anne Genter win Wellington Bays at the 2026 NZ General election?
As a guide, The overhang gives them a 90-99% chance. The Overhang 2.10 - Side splitting
1,000I hold Genter NO here and Genter YES in the Wellington Bays winner market: /Jack1/2026-wellington-bays-electorate-win
Both descriptions concern who wins the same electorate at the 2026 general election. At about 09:02 UTC on 7 November, displayed Genter YES prices were 81% here and 63% there. These are marginal quotes, not executable prices for an entire position.
My paired holdings rely on consistent normal resolution. Cancellation or differing interpretations can break that match, and capital may stay tied up. I am not treating the preliminary count as final or claiming a risk-free profit. Please flag any intended resolution difference between these markets.