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MANIFOLD
Which Party finishes 6th place in the 2026 NZ election?
11
Ṁ1.1kṀ9.5k
Dec 31
96%
Opportunity Party
1.8%
Other
1.2%
Act

Resolves according to the party that gets the 6th highest amount of party votes in the 2026 NZ election on Nov 7.

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I hold Opportunity YES. The criterion is sixth by total party votes, so falling below the 5% parliamentary threshold would not by itself make this lose.

Electoral Commission snapshot observed around 20:25 NZDT on 7 November 2026 (07:25 UTC): Opportunity 73,224 (5.38%), NZ First 128,623 (9.45%), TPM 7,747 (0.56%). 26.6% describes result returns, not the share of all ballots counted. These are preliminary ordinary votes. Unreported ordinary votes and specials can still change the ranking.

In 2023 TPM finished sixth (3.08%) and TOP seventh (2.22%). I am holding based on the current gap and remaining-vote scenarios, without treating this as resolved.

Current source: https://electionresults.govt.nz/ge2026/

2023 final: https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/

bought Ṁ50 NO

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