Resolves yes if the country wins any game at the fifa World Cup. Resolves no if they do not win any game. Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A win on penalties counts as winning a game for resolution purposes, even if the match is considered a draw for international ranking purposes.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Brazil, followed by Colombia and Morocco are most likely. See the market for live updates (38 traders, as of Jun 20, 2026).

Which countries will win a game at the FIFA World Cup?

Ṁ4.8kṀ30k

Jul 19

99%

Brazil

99%

Colombia

99%

Morocco

99%

Austria

99%

Paraguay

99%

Ghana

99%

Switzerland

97%

Spain

96%

Portugal

95%

Netherlands

91%

Belgium

88%

Uruguay

86%

Japan

83%

Ecuador

80%

Croatia

79%

Senegal

70%

Egypt

59%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

56%

Saudi Arabia

53%

Czechia

Resolves yes if the country wins any game at the fifa World Cup. Resolves no if they do not win any game.

Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A win on penalties counts as winning a game for resolution purposes, even if the match is considered a draw for international ranking purposes.

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If a team advances to the knockout stage without winning a game in the group stage, then wins their round of 32 match on penalties, would that count? That match would be considered a draw for international ranking purposes