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MANIFOLD
California Governor Primary Head to Heads
14
Ṁ1.5kṀ1.2k
Jun 4
87%
Steve Hilton (YES) vs Chad Bianco (NO)
86%
Steve Hilton (YES) vs Katie Porter(NO)
83%
Steve Hilton (YES) vs Matt Mahan (NO)
75%
Tom Steyer (YES) vs Katie Porter (NO)
74%
Tom Steyer(YES) vs Matt Mahan(NO)
72%
Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Matt Mahan (NO)
72%
Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Katie Porter (NO)
71%
Tom Steyer(YES) vs Chad Bianco (NO)
68%
Chad Bianco(YES) vs Katie Porter(NO)
60%
Matt Mahan(YES) vs Katie Porter(NO)
55%
Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Chad Bianco (NO)
46%
Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Tom Steyer(NO)
43%
Tom Steyer(YES) vs Steve Hilton (NO)
38%
Matt Mahan(YES) vs Chad Bianco(NO)
35%
Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Steve Hilton (NO)

Resolves to whoever gets the most votes in each head to head. For example, in Xavier Becerra(YES) vs Tom Steyer(NO) if Xavier Becerra got 10m votes and Steyer got 11m, it would resolve NO as Tom steyer got the most.

Resolves according to official results and major media reporting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election

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I love these kinds of markets because they allow a form of arbitrage-like trading via enforcing transitivity (Bradley–Terry consistency) across pairwise probabilities.

@4fa I was just thinking....

bought Ṁ10 NO

Hello

@AAR here!

bought Ṁ40 YES

20 mana to the first 10 people who place a trade and comment below!

bought Ṁ1 NO

@Jack1 Hello!

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 46% order

@Jack1 Below! 😁

bought Ṁ1 NO

@Jack1 below!

@Jack1 Oh, I have to comment below!

@Jack1 below!

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Jack1 *anything

@Qubits no, you can comment anything 😂. I say below so it’s easier for me to find if the market was getting comments elsewhere