Will human embryos selected by genetic markers for “intelligence” be implanted for pregnancy by December 31, 2027
10
Ṁ150Ṁ1.3kresolved Sep 3
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ86 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
People are also trading
Will human fetuses created without egg or sperm (eg stem cells) be used to birth human babies by Dec 1, 2027
7% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
What will be the first country to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Will 10% or more US births be selected embryos by 2030
7% chance
Will there be significant legal action against embryo selection in the US by 2028?
24% chance
Embryo Selection—2030
13% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
45% chance
Embryo Selection—2050
25% chance
Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
28% chance
Sort by:
What is your resolution criteria, @JFlavius1? Because polygenetically-selected babies already exist, and predicted IQ is one of the traits used.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/oct/18/us-startup-charging-couples-to-screen-embryos-for-iq
I believe this is complete confirmation.
I think this qualifies as a positive resolution?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will human fetuses created without egg or sperm (eg stem cells) be used to birth human babies by Dec 1, 2027
7% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
What will be the first country to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Will 10% or more US births be selected embryos by 2030
7% chance
Will there be significant legal action against embryo selection in the US by 2028?
24% chance
Embryo Selection—2030
13% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
45% chance
Embryo Selection—2050
25% chance
Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
28% chance