Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
42
1kṀ12k
2030
33%
chance

As a source of general information, not just "Manifold Markets has a market with over 2000 traders [citation: link to manifold]".

Must be clearly accepted as a general Wikipedia policy or norm, not just one rogue editor adding one in and nobody caring enough to contest it.

  • Update 2025-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification on Accepted Sources:

    • Accepted as a source means the prediction market must be recognized under general Wikipedia policy as a reliable source, not merely cited once.

    • The citation must meet a higher threshold than one-off mentions (for example, being integrated into multiple articles or discussed by multiple experienced editors).

    • A single citation (or self-citation) does not suffice to demonstrate that a prediction market is generally accepted as a source.

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