Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
10
190Ṁ3262030
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Another attempted operationalization of scandal markets. Resolves YES if Substack kicks Scott off the platform, or Scott choses to leave the platform under circumstances that make it seem likely that Substack would have kicked them off if they didn't leave themselves.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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This almost feels like a prosocial sacrifice more so than a bet. I won’t make any Monopoly money on this one for 6 years? Yeah right.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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