There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism. This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
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@Dauphin I think his post made it pretty clear that he would consider converting if-and-only-if he sees a sufficiently convincing miracle. He just thoroughly investigated what he considers the most convincing miracle candidate and found it to be insufficient. Unless you place a high probability on another miracle event happening in future this seems overpriced.
@A my view is only based on a few observations about Scott’s writing that fit into one pattern I’m curious about and align with one trend I’ve been pondering (trend already called out by the market creator).
Not much tight reasoning behind my position, this is just me contemplating how likely I think it is that Scott’s curiosity could take him in a particular direction, if he thinks the way I think he does.
Many ways your no purchases could be right, absolutely including that I’m too early. only reason I think I’m not too early is the magnitude of the signals already showing up on my surrogate endpoints for this question
all that to say, I don’t have a view on a miracle event happening in the future, although my naive guess is that it is very unlikely. I certainly agree that if I needed a miracle event to see Scott become Christian, buying up to 30% with the information we have on miracles and Scott’s miraculous surface area would be pretty unwise.
However, I do not think yes needs such an event
@Dauphin I am confident of the existence of the supernatural and that irreligion is a bad idea; I am not too confident which religion is true.
You all know he's Jewish right? And is very knowledgeable about Judaism at that. Even for Jews with little/no Jewish affiliation, converting to Christianity is very looked down on. "Your ancestors lived through centuries of persecution, pogroms, attempted forced conversion, and genocide, so that you could just give up your heritage?"
He's absolutely not converting. And I have thousands of mana worth of limit orders saying as much.
@ValentinGolev There's probably a special level of hell for people who convert to Christianity to win at prediction markets.
@Dfe2f A jester might argue that Christianity explicitly commands people to "count up the cost" and consider the expected value of their conversion before making their choice...