Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024?
44
Ṁ1kṀ9.7kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ28 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
People are also trading
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
98% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
84% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
41% chance
Will Metaculus be around in 10 years?
72% chance
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
75% chance
Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?
74% chance
Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
76% chance
Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
39% chance
Will Meta Threads still be around in 2028?
60% chance
Sort by:
@JonathanRay Personally, I like both platforms and there are still several things that Metaculus does better, which Manifold could potentially try to subsume but they're pretty hard!
@JonathanRay Even if it does, websites are sticky and usually slow to die (server costs aren't much if you just stop putting active new development work in)
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
98% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
84% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
41% chance
Will Metaculus be around in 10 years?
72% chance
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
75% chance
Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?
74% chance
Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
76% chance
Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
39% chance
Will Meta Threads still be around in 2028?
60% chance