Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
4
153Ṁ10392100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
2%+ (Resolves start of 2026)
34%
2%+ (Resolves start of 2025)
Resolved
NO2%+ (Resolves start of 2024)
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction. Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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