The first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.8k2027
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors. If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
34% chance
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?
1/6/30
Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026
73% chance
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
70% chance
Will a fully autonomous vehicle (Level 5) be commercially available to consumers by 2030?
57% chance
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
41% chance
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot by mid 2026 for US markets
16% chance
When Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes?
2031
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot by mid 2027 for US markets
37% chance