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MANIFOLD
Will 10 or more starship flights be required for Artemis 3?
14
Ṁ170Ṁ749
2030
33%
chance

(As claimed by blue origin)

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@Isaac228c
Artemis 3 plan has changed, so is this question:

For Artemis 3, regardless of plan? (Current plan going to LEO only) or
For first Artemis landing on moon with Starship? or
For first crewed Artemis landing on moon with Starship? or
something else?

How does this resolve if there are major changes to Artemis 3 (eg Orion and Starship docking but no landing, with the first landing being pushed back to say Artemis 4)?

(Pinging @Isaac228c)

FWIW this is the claim by Blue Origin that this market is presumably referencing (relevant section conveniently in bold):