Russia-NATO war vs. Putin president
8
235Ṁ196
2035
56%
No war before 1.1.2035
41%
War, Putin president of Russia
3%
War, Putin not president of Russia

War: Armed conflict with more than 1000 dead. Does not have to be declared, or reported as war.

NATO: NATO members at the moment of the conflict start.

Putin: It will be decisive whether he is president at the start of the war.

I will use my best guess in assessing whether there has been more than 1000 dead. I will not bet on the market.

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How do proxy wars count? Do the 1000 dead need to be citizens of a NATO country or Russia? Would a string of terrorist attacks count if they were credibly linked to the Russian state?

@Fion Only citizens of Russia or NATO count, it needs to be direct conflict. Terrorist attack killing 1000 people would count if it can be attributed to the other party with high enough confidence.

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