Will Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
79
1kṀ15k
2027
92%
chance

Some possible triggers for NO:

  • He resigns or otherwise loses the presidency before the war ends

  • He dies before the war ends

  • He is ousted from the presidency as a condition of the war ending (even if he is given a small transition period of less than a year)

  • Russia ceases to exist as a nation

  • He changes position or title to something other than "President"

Doesn't trigger a resolution:

  • The war extends beyond Ukraine and is no longer considered the Ukraine-Russia war

  • Ukraine ceases to exist as a nation, is annexed, or is renamed

  • Russia is renamed

Otherwise, YES when the war ends. As per questions in the comments: for practical reasons, a formal armistice that is adhered to would qualify as the end of the war.

The close date on this market may be extended as needed.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy