Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
16
Ṁ1kṀ1.3kDec 31
81%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will only consider days after market creation (not any day in 2026 including before creation).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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