On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
5
Ṁ1kṀ3.3kSep 27
56%
x ≥ 5
25%
x ≥ 10
11%
x ≥ 15
6%
x ≥ 20
4%
x ≥ 25
3%
x ≥ 30
1.6%
x ≥ 35
Question
On August 30th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Resolution Criteria
Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on September 27th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.
If the data are not available by end of day October 28th, I will resolve each market to NA.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?
47% chance
Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?
1% chance
Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?
11% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
29% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 30th 2027? [Polymarket]
49% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
34% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket]
39% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
43% chance
Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
1% chance
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
2% chance