Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?

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resolved Jan 2

Resolved

ALL

Israel uses a nuclear weapon, either a neutron bomb, fission bomb (like used in Hiroshima) or hydrogen bomb against an adversary before January 1st, 2026.

To resolve as YES, Israel must admit the use of a weapon or the New York Times must say that Israel detonated the weapon.

Shows of force (e.g. doing a nuclear test on the border of Iran) that do not kill anyone or destroy property will cause this claim to be resolved as YES.

Market context

Israel-Hamas Conflict

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Israel admitting this can be problematic. If anything they gonna deny it like their lives depend on it (they would). And there's nothing to gain from such admission.

Uh wtf why is this at 14%

I don't push it down below 1% because of fluidity, but the current 7% is crazy. It would take a likely short term danger to Israel's existence to break the current Israeli policy on the subject, let alone breaking an 80yo international taboo. Maybe if 2 of Egypt Tuekey and Iran attack on the same time, it would make sense. But really??

bought Ṁ10 YES

@BenayaKoren I think Israel has demonstrated pretty well they couldn't care less about international law or their perception.

@BlackCrusade nobody really cares.

@ICRainbow true, they're more or less immune to sanctions since the US has their back no matter what they do.

@BlackCrusade I see. So we do politics. I thought we are doing prediction...

As an Israeli, I have the secret inside knowledge that we care a lot about how we are perceived - perhaps pathologically so. And that while we don't care much about international law as such, we do care about the values that inspired it. And that even if we didn't, we are not nearly as secure in our reliance on the US as you claim to think we should be.