Declared wars resolve YES.

Major operations that are not official declared resolve partial at 50%. Examples of past conflicts that, if they'd started in 2026, would count: Six-Day War, First (1982) Lebanon War, Operation Protective Edge (2014). I will use my best judgment as to what counts as a major operation. If it feels like an edge case, I'll resolve somewhere between 0% and 50%.

• Update 2026-08-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Operation Roaring Lion counts as a major operation. This market will resolve to at least 50% (or YES), depending on future events.