Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the official ticketing platform or registration page for Manifest 2027 explicitly offers an option to purchase tickets using "mana" (the platform currency on Manifold). It resolves to NO if no such option is provided.
Official confirmation will be determined by the official Manifest website (https://manifest.is/) or official announcements made by the Manifest organizers regarding 2027 ticket sales. If Manifest 2027 is cancelled or if ticket sales do not occur, the market will resolve N/A.
Background
Manifest is an annual festival focused on topics such as progress studies, effective altruism, and prediction markets, hosted by the team behind Manifold. While Manifold operates using mana for its prediction market activities, there is no established precedent or official policy regarding the use of platform-specific digital tokens for physical event ticket purchases.
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1,000@SpeaksForTrees good scenario, thx.
my thought during market creation was that just direct partial or full purchases of tickets using mana would count towards YES.
if there is a raffle, I am thinking of resolving to the percentage of raffle participants who actually win a ticket - since those were the people who were actually able to use their mana to get Manifest tickets per this market.
I think that's more or less fair. Thoughts?