How many popes until AGI?
25
Ṁ250Ṁ1.2k2050
1.8 popes
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
0
67%
1
22%
2
2%
3
2%
4
1.3%
5
1.3%
6 - 7
1.3%
8 - 10
1.5%
Above 10
Resolves to the number of people who have been pope between today (April 23, 2025) and the exact date this Metaculus question resolves to. Pope Francis doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
13% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
Which US Presidents will live to see AGI?
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
Will we get AGI before 2038?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
19% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
37% chance
Who will be first to AGI