Who will be first to AGI
51
Ṁ1.3kṀ2.6k2050
24%
OpenAI
5%
Microsoft
5%
Meta
3%
Huggingface/homegrown
28%
Google
5%
US government
15%
China government
1.3%
Russia government
1.3%
Apple
13%
AGI is impossible
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
13% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
When will AGI be developed and released to the public?
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?
16% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
37% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Sort by:
@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?
@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!
@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
31% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
13% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
When will AGI be developed and released to the public?
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?
16% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
37% chance
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance