Who will be first to AGI
54
Ṁ1.3kṀ2.8k2050
27%
OpenAI
4%
Microsoft
4%
Meta
3%
Huggingface/homegrown
31%
Google
4%
US government
13%
China government
1.2%
Russia government
1.2%
Apple
11%
AGI is impossible
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Will we get AGI before 2028?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
34% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
50% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
What year will mark the first true AGI?
2029
By when will we have AGI?
When will AGI arrive
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@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?
@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!
@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.
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Will we get AGI before 2028?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
34% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
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What year will mark the first true AGI?
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By when will we have AGI?
When will AGI arrive