Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
34
1kṀ24362026
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
First date was in September 2022; relationship got serious in October 2022; moved to same city to be together in January 2023.
Market resolves "YES" if Eliezer endorses "I am really into Gretta" and Gretta endorses "I am really into Eliezer" on October 4th, 2026.
Market resolves N/A if the world ends first, if either of them dies, or if other circumstances intervene to make a continued relationship physically impossible.
Market resolves "NO" if Eliezer and Gretta could theoretically be really into each other, but just aren't anymore.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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