
Resolves YES if, on the 5 year anniversary of our wedding, we've been together more or less continuously.
Resolves NO if we end up not getting married for whatever reason, or if we separate for a significant amount of time (eg 3+ months) after getting married.
Some context for base rates:
We met in Aug 2022, officially started dating in Oct, moved in together Jan 2023, and got engaged in Mar. Planning for a wedding in July or Aug.
I'm 28 and have a master's; she's 20, on leave from college
We currently work together building manifund.org
My parents are still together; hers are divorced
We intend to have kids, plural
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a marriage last > 5 years if the husband is showing consistent interest in another woman prior to the ceremony?
20% chance
Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?
58% chance
Will my friends Eliot and Serene still be married in 10 years from now?
90% chance
Will Robert Lewandowski and Anna Lewandowska stay married through 2030?
44% chance
Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
68% chance
Will my new romantic relationship last at least a year?
64% chance