Will a new type of AI model replace transformers as the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology by 2024?

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resolved Dec 31

Resolved

NO

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Resolves YES if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is NOT transfomer-based model on December 31st 2024.

Resolves NO if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is transformer-based, such as the GPT architecture on December 31st 2024.

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i believe it won't be possible very soon, but within the next decade? yeah, considering how much progress is being made on current models

So if there's a transformer anywhere in the network, this resolves no? Do you mean LLM rather than transformer? What about an LLM with an RL agent running outside it to provide agency, or vice versa?

@Tomoffer If the core functionality of the AI stems from a transformer, this resolves no. I realize this is a bit subjective but "I'll know it when I see it". Essentially, this only resolves yes if there's a breakthrough model that beats current transformer-based models in a significant number of benchmarks.

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