Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?
Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?
4
1kṀ2110
2028
15%
chance

This market assesses whether European investors will face significant governmental restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political tensions during the 2nd trump presidency.

Specifically, this market resolves YES if:

  • The US government broadly freezes or seizes US stock assets held by European investors OR

  • European investors become broadly unable to trade their US stocks due to US government intervention

This market does NOT cover:

  • Targeted restrictions on a small number of specific individuals (e.g., those on sanctions lists)

  • Market volatility or economic factors not directly caused by government intervention

  • Restrictions imposed by European governments on their citizens' US investments

Background: Current sentiment suggests heightened political risk for Europeans holding US stocks, leading some investors to shift toward European markets. This market aims to quantify that specific political risk.

Politics
US Politics
Economics
Business
World
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1mo

My prior is that there's only a really small chance of this happening, like <1%, because it's such a big step. But also the 2nd trump presidency has been very volatile and weird.

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