MANIFOLD
Manifold Bingo 2026
19
αΉ€1.4kαΉ€11k
2027
65%
@archvenison https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=archvenison-001
61%
@jcb https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=jcb-001
60%
@Jack1
60%
@Jack1
60%
@Jack1
60%
@Jack1
59%
@NivlacM https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=NivlacM-001
59%
@Stralor https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=Stralor-001
59%
@Cy https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=Cy-001
58%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-012
58%
@EvanDaniel https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=EvanDaniel-002
54%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-011
53%
@JussiVilleHeiskanen https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=JussiVilleHeiskanen-001
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-004
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-002
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-005
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-006
51%
@Jack1 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=Jack1-003
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-007
51%
@121 https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/card.html?id=121-003

Manifold Bingo 2026

⚠️ ALPHA TEST - This game is in early testing. We may resolve all cards N/A if critical bugs are discovered. Play at your own risk!

Buy a personalized bingo card of Manifold markets!

How to Play

  1. Add an answer with your @handle (e.g., "@yourname" or "@yourname-2" for a second card)

  2. Reply to your answer with customization (optional):

    free: market-slug-for-free-space
topics: AI, crypto, politics
include: specific-market-to-include

  3. Place a limit order (25-60% probability, M$100-500) to buy your card

  4. Bot fills your order and generates your card

  5. View your card at: https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/

Timing

  • Card generation: ~1-2 minutes after placing your limit order (if bot is running)

  • Card viewer update: ~2-3 minutes after card generation (GitHub Pages deployment)

  • If bot is not running, cards will be generated when it restarts

Pricing & House Edge

Cards are generated with a ~5% house edge. This means if you buy at 50%, your card will have approximately 45% win probability. The edge covers bot operation costs and provides a buffer for probability estimation.

Resolution Rules

  • Your card resolves YES if any row, column, or diagonal completes (all 5 markets resolve YES)

  • Your card resolves NO if all 12 lines are blocked (each line has at least one market that resolved NO)

  • Cards remain active until one of these conditions is met

Card Details

  • 5x5 grid (25 markets total)

  • Free space in center (high probability market)

  • 12 winning lines: 5 rows + 5 columns + 2 diagonals

Customization Limits

  • Max 4 specific markets you can request via include:

  • Max 4 topics you can request via topics: (2-4 markets per topic, up to ~16 total)

  • Remaining slots filled with random eligible markets to hit target probability

Rerolling Markets

Don't like some markets on your card? Within 24 hours of purchase, you can request replacements:

  1. Reply to the bot's card details comment (not the answer) with:

    reroll: market-slug-to-replace
ban: keyword

  2. reroll: replaces a specific market by slug

  3. ban: replaces all markets matching a keyword (in title, slug, or topics)

  4. Bot will reply confirming the changes and updated win probability

  5. Max 12 markets can be rerolled (half the card)

Market Eligibility

Markets on your card are selected from Manifold markets that meet these criteria:

  • Binary outcome type (YES/NO markets only)

  • Ranked (quality-filtered by Manifold)

  • 20+ unique traders (ensures liquidity and interest)

  • Closes between 1 week from now and January 7, 2027

Trading

Trade your card position anytime on Manifold! The market price reflects the community's estimate of your card's win probability.

Links

Good luck! 🎲

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opened a αΉ€400 NO at 60% orderπŸ€–

Bingo Card EvanDaniel-002

View Card

Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%

Resolution Criteria:

  • YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES

  • NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)

  • N/A and cancelled markets count as NO

Markets on this card: 1.1. will-kompany-coach-bayern-munich-fo 1.2. majority-of-scientists-believe-ther 1.3. will-the-winner-of-the-2026-fifa-wo 1.4. will-ww3-happen-before-gta6 1.5. will-twitter-x-shut-down-before-202 2.1. will-ai-porn-videos-be-better-than 2.2. will-the-official-claudeplayspokemo 2.3. will-apple-vp-of-finance-alex-roman 2.4. will-afc-team-beat-the-nfc-team-sup 2.5. will-ai-write-75-of-social-media-vi 3.1. if-i-livestream-a-game-of-chess-wit 3.2. ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-us-tariffs-be-higher-in-2025-t 3.4. will-tyler-robinson-be-alive-on-dec 3.5. will-a-critically-acclaimed-video-g-9a7eb9a3597a 4.1. will-llms-become-a-ubiquitous-part 4.2. will-there-be-a-large-volcanic-expl 4.3. will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb 4.4. grok-adds-terminate-conversation-bu 4.5. will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-hacke 5.1. will-charles-iii-remain-the-king-fo-22QqlIgU2q 5.2. will-chat-gpt-6-release-before-the 5.3. in-be-as-good-as-your-word-is-iomed 5.4. will-the-russoukrainian-war-end-wit 5.5. will-a-major-ai-lab-announce-that-t

@Jack1 how come it never added my bingos

@Jack1 I think that in all cases, there isn't a limit order for it to fill. They should still be live, if you add a limit order of M100-M500 it should notice it, fill it, and create the card.

I wonder if your system consistently underestimates bingo probability due to underlying dependence of markets. 5 dependent markets at 50/50 have much higher odds than 5 independent markets

@NivlacM markets can also be negatively correlated, so you really need a row with a related event AND framing. Directionally it probably helps, but it’s pretty minor imo.

I’m guessing the markets here are more likely to be overpriced than underpriced, so overall the bot’s odds should start off solidly ahead (combined with the 5% edge, AND that all N/As or percent resolves count as NOs). However, Evan is allowing a reasonable amount of adversarial selection here, as people can choose to include Markets every think are underpriced, or reroll bad ones, or etc. so imo if Evan’s bot ends up with a loss, it’ll be due to that adversarial selection, not correlations

@Ziddletwix Picking your own markets is cheating, plain and simple. We only allow 20% completely random markets in the Super Bingo League (SBL).

filled a αΉ€150 YES at 60% order

@NivlacM My hope is that there's errors both ways, but that they aren't a big deal. Correlation is definitely a real thing I'm ignoring. I'm hoping it's hard to exploit because of the randomness, and that on average the approximation is roughly correct. It does a monte carlo sim of the whole card assuming independence, so the natural correlation structure of the card itself is accounted for. I'm hopeful that if people think markets are wrong they will... bet on them instead of trying to exploit the bot. Hopefully it's all in good fun, but if your idea of fun is exploiting the bot for a couple hundred mana then please at least leave me a writeup so I can have fun reading it :)

The card display doesn't seem to handle resolved markets properly

@NivlacM Thank you! It looks like it's highlighting properly but showing last trade price instead of 100%. Is that what you mean, or are there other bugs as well?

@EvanDaniel that is what I meant. I didn't even realize there was highlighting!

@NivlacM Should be working now, might need a hard refresh.

@EvanDaniel why did the target probability for my 3 newest cards become 45% instead of 55%?

@121 I'm not sure, I will investigate tonight. Thanks for the bug report!

@121 Thank you! Sent you M265 (65 for refund, 200 for bug bounty).

@121 If you would rather n/a the cards that is fine too.

@EvanDaniel Thanks! I do not need the n/a

opened a αΉ€322 NO at 60% orderπŸ€–

Bingo Card 121-015

View Card

Win Probability at Generation: 54.9% Purchase Price: 60.0%

Resolution Criteria:

  • YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES

  • NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)

  • N/A and cancelled markets count as NO

Markets on this card: 1.1. will-donald-trump-die-before-joe-bi 1.2. will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a 1.3. will-trump-interfere-with-greenland 1.4. is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as 1.5. will-eliezer-and-gretta-still-be-re 2.1. will-givewell-fund-hpv-vaccination 2.2. will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas 2.3. will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up 2.4. ai-to-pass-sparse-adversarial-pertu 2.5. will-the-gaza-death-toll-be-over-15 3.1. across-2025-a-majority-of-ea-fundin 3.2. will-ice-use-85-of-its-30-billion-b 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-any-2026-fifa-world-cup-matche 3.4. will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 3.5. acx-2026-will-donald-trump-cease-to 4.1. will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot 4.2. by-2026-john-wentworth-still-believ 4.3. will-gta6-release-on-pc-on-the-same 4.4. will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope 4.5. will-putin-die-within-the-cinese-ye 5.1. is-kaido-dead 5.2. will-italy-qualify-for-the-2026-fif 5.3. will-5-of-an-ftx-grant-be-clawed-ba 5.4. will-there-be-an-ai-smartphone-brou 5.5. will-valve-release-halflife-3-befor

@Evansbot reroll: is-kaido-dead, will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot, will-donald-trump-die-before-joe-bi, acx-2026-will-donald-trump-cease-to, will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas, will-trump-interfere-with-greenland

opened a αΉ€322 NO at 60% orderπŸ€–

Bingo Card 121-014

View Card

Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%

Resolution Criteria:

  • YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES

  • NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)

  • N/A and cancelled markets count as NO

Markets on this card: 1.1. will-i-think-that-the-belief-state 1.2. will-gpt5-make-manifold-think-very 1.3. will-xcom-be-accessible-in-the-uk-o-LClQpPgNnh 1.4. will-github-implement-a-blanket-ban 1.5. given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f-0dde6bfd1962 2.1. is-a-state-actor-beind-the-xz-backd 2.2. will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-IluhsuC50P 2.3. new-england-patriots-in-superbowl-f 2.4. afd-win-absolute-majority-in-2026-s 2.5. opensource-ai-model-gets-perfect-im 3.1. will-spinlaunch-have-a-successful-l-a18a2bd6b7c2 3.2. if-i-write-an-encyclopedia-of-bad-a 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-any-2026-fifa-world-cup-matche 3.4. will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot 3.5. will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 4.1. will-global-greenhouse-gas-emission-q40c6le2qi 4.2. acx-2026-will-openai-file-for-an-ip 4.3. acx-2026-will-an-aicreated-song-cha 4.4. will-there-be-an-ai-smartphone-brou 4.5. australia-reverses-under16-social-m 5.1. will-givewell-recommend-a-grant-to-6b5451676575 5.2. will-sbf-be-physically-in-jail-at-t-71a54b744961 5.3. will-valve-release-halflife-3-befor 5.4. will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb 5.5. will-any-player-score-more-than-6-g-f43d7460350b

@Evansbot reroll: if-i-write-an-encyclopedia-of-bad-a, given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f-0dde6bfd1962, will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot

opened a αΉ€322 NO at 60% orderπŸ€–

Bingo Card 121-013

View Card

Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%

Resolution Criteria:

  • YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES

  • NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)

  • N/A and cancelled markets count as NO

Markets on this card: 1.1. will-venezuelans-be-better-off-at-t 1.2. will-sbf-be-physically-in-jail-at-t-71a54b744961 1.3. will-there-be-self-driving-taxis-in-5f5ad7fbb169 1.4. doge-cuts-1t-federal-deficit-by-fy 1.5. will-there-be-another-assassination-StRlcEuPUp 2.1. will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta 2.2. is-there-secret-treasure-at-the-gia 2.3. will-humans-return-to-the-moon-in-2 2.4. will-the-justice-department-win-its 2.5. will-the-robotaxi-come-out-below-30 3.1. will-minecraft-still-be-the-bestsel 3.2. will-us-inflation-go-above-3-before 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-tumblr-still-exist-by-end-of-2-823071c2a380 3.4. will-silence-be-the-first-sport-cli 3.5. will-i-make-imo-ever 4.1. will-i-think-that-the-belief-state 4.2. will-donald-trump-attend-the-mens-2 4.3. will-any-one-of-the-ice-members-inv 4.4. will-gwern-publish-a-standalone-boo 4.5. if-trump-won-the-election-will-the 5.1. ai-beats-human-baseline-on-posttrai 5.2. will-dan-sullivan-win-reelection-to 5.3. will-openai-employ-more-people-on-8 5.4. will-bethesda-publicly-release-the 5.5. will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-ag

@Evansbot reroll: will-i-make-imo-ever

@Evansbot reroll: will-i-make-imo-ever

Why is my rng so bad?

@121 Anything in particular you're hoping for or that I can help with?

@EvanDaniel no, just talking to my self

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