@EvanDaniel Since the attention spotlight seems to have shifted: we're not there yet. I'm unclear on whether the new thing is an improvement or not; probably yes? But the question wasn't "is it better" it was "Actually Like It". I can't reference a clear doc and figure out what's going on. Distortionary effects of no clawback still in place. We didn't get interest on positions to complement loans. Loan speed is still made up and not based on any particular design goals or data about whether the new system achieves them. Tying into the subscription system, and availability of margin loans, is all neat. I'm not sure risk management improved (who would be? there are no docs).

I think the daily loan concept is super neat; it's an innovative feature that Manifold is (AFAIK) the only one to trial. I'm glad to see experimentation, whether by Manifold in the form of daily loans or Kalshi with interest. But nothing about this strikes me as a serious attempt at anything yet.

@SG Resolves YES

@SG Does contributing to the charity lottery count toward this achievement?

@Quroe I don't think it should, personally

@realDonaldTrump @Quroe Check it out: https://manifold.markets/post/lowk-best-pull-request-weve-ever-se

For the people that are engaged in the comments, this would be a great quality of life improvement.

@SG link or didn't happen.

@SIMOROBO https://manifold.markets/shop

@SG oh that counts as merch? I thought we were getting hoodies.

@SIMOROBO oh, oops, i may have resolved this prematurely...

@SIMOROBO soon...

@SG

@SG Mana store and subscription plan are live at https://manifold.markets/shop

Leave feedback at

https://manifold.markets/post/mana-shop-membership-subscription

@EvanDaniel Something that doesn't have rollbacks. If I buy low and sell high, I get to be out of the market and keep my profit regardless of n/a or no n/a.

One implementation might look like: a three-outcome market with Y/N/NA options. UI/UX support that shows (maybe advanced mode only?) things like P(Y|~NA), P(NA). Support for limit orders on P(Y|~NA) and related. I buy P(Y|~NA) by buying Y shares and hedging with NA shares.

@EvanDaniel I kinda like the tradition of opening a "will market X resolve N/A" meta-market that can be used to hedge against a N/A resolution. Making that happen in a first-class way sounds... complicated.

@retr0id Yeah, that's a decent workaround. But it doesn't let me take profits! Rollbacks suck. Anyway, if Claude Code can implement a viewer and pricing for the 2x2 joint market case where I can buy P(A|B) with proper hedging, and it can, I don't think this is actually a thing that's "complicated".

@EvanDaniel It does let you take profits if you take a YES position in the meta-market proportional to your profits ;)

@retr0id Doesn't that have potential liquidity issues though? Ones that I kinda need to anticipate when I take the initial position, not just when exiting it?

❗

@Quroe I hope non-paying users don't end up feeling like second class citizens on this site

@Quroe I don't know if I'll manage to be the first, but I'm definitely buying a subscription the day this comes out if the price and benefits are even a little sane.

@xjp Admittedly I did buy a subscription, but it certainly wasn't because I felt like a second-class citizen without it. It also helps that it's paid in mana.

What are your feelings on what was implemented?

@SimonWestlake I agree, I don't mind it as long as it's paid in mana. Then it feels like "part of the game" rather than pay-to-win.

Every time there's a sub window (or whatever you would call it) and I try to scroll down it refreshes the page instead. I have to play predictle in only one direction because of this. I'm guessing it's an Android only thing

@NivlacM I experience this too. And in DMs.

@NivlacM In Predictle, try long tapping an item, then dragging it to the side first before dragging it vertically. This should be an okay Band-Aid for now.