This is an attempt to provide a close mirror to /EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8-1d6566217a38 . However, it also adds a couple other questions highly likely (in my opinion) to resolve No, that are not trading at exactly zero. Hopefully differences in pricing between these two can provide a quantitative estimate for noise in prices and interest rates.

See also the linked version of the original:

/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8

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3mo

Why is there no zero option?

3mo

@AlexBokov It would resolve yes if it were there, so there’s no point.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

🏅 Top traders

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