Nuclear risk 2024: How many of the 8 linked questions will resolve Yes?
22
1.9kṀ13kresolved Jan 3
100%99.0%
0
0.3%
1
0.4%
2
0.2%
3
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
6-8
How many of these markets will resolve Yes?
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-b81a727f8cd4
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6cba7b4a2e34
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-missile-be-successfu
/EvanDaniel/will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-bbd6762bfb35
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-accidental-nuclear
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to the linked markets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ256 | |
| 2 | Ṁ177 | |
| 3 | Ṁ176 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?
73% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
17% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
12% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
14% chance