How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term?

Ṁ1.2kṀ5.3k

2029

90%

1.2%

0.9%

3-4

1.9%

5-7

1.7%

8-12

Other

Military combat deaths, combined, across any military.

Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Civilians killed by military are generally counted as combat deaths.

Resolution may depend on practical realities of available source data and how sources count deaths. The creator may use Wikipedia infobox data as the source, though this is not definitively committed to.

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Are civilians killed by military counted?

@moobunny In general yes, though this may end up being decided more by practical realities of where I can get source data and how they count things. Might just go with whatever's in the WIkipedia infobox, though I'm a little hesitant to just commit to Wikipedia as source in a market that's not intended to be about Wikipedia.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Really poor bucketing of answers. If the answer is nonzero, then the conditional uncertainty spans orders of magnitude. I would have gone with [0, 1-9, 10-99, 100-999, 1000 or more].

@PatrickLV I figured we'd add buckets later, but we can add a couple now too.

@PatrickLV Anyway, 0 is trading at 91%, and other at 3%. I'm thinking this answer set is just fine, and there's no need to split "other" up further. (I will, of course, change my mind if "other" starts trading relevantly higher than that.)

@EvanDaniel The market moved dramatically because Trump announced that he would not use military force. If things had gone differently last week, there would be nontrivial weights on other buckets, and then it would matter how the bucketing was done.