Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
8
395Ṁ2652035
5%
xAI
5%
Deepmind
15%
OpenAI
3%
A university-sponsored research team
42%
A state-sponsored research team
11%
Meta
20%
Other
Resolves to whichever company designed the first model to kill >1 million people. If on such outbreak does not occur, resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
If a Chinese company (with typical amounts of CCP funding/control for state goals) designed the model, how does this resolve? State or Other?
@RobertCousineau Something on the order of Baidu/Alibaba/Tencent will resolve to State. If it isn't clear which it is, I'll poll Lesswrong and resolve it to the common consensus.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14% chance
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
4% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
16% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?
29% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
7% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
60% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?
78% chance