Market question

Will Mike Hammer be expelled from Cuba in 2026?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the Cuban government formally expels Mike Hammer from Cuban territory at any point before December 31, 2026 (23:59 UTC).

“Expelled” means:

• An official declaration of persona non grata, or

• A public order requiring Hammer to leave Cuba, or

• Credible reporting from major international media (AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, etc.) confirming his forced departure at the Cuban government’s request.

The market resolves NO if:

• He remains in Cuba through the end of 2026, or

• He leaves voluntarily without evidence of expulsion, or

• No reliable reporting confirms an expulsion.

If Hammer is already outside Cuba and is barred from re-entry with official confirmation, that counts as YES.

Notes

• Temporary harassment, surveillance, public denunciations, or actos de repudio do not count unless followed by an expulsion.

• Diplomatic recall by the U.S. without Cuban expulsion = NO.

Background (context for traders)

Mike Hammer, a senior U.S. diplomat linked to Cuba policy, and current U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Havana has recently become the target of intensified Cuban state criticism and public intimidation campaigns. Historically, Havana has used expulsions and persona non grata declarations as pressure tools during moments of heightened bilateral tension. With U.S.–Cuba relations deteriorating and internal Cuban stress increasing, traders may weigh whether escalation crosses the threshold from intimidation to outright expulsion.