Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029. Resolution will be determined by official Cuban government sources and international news reporting confirming Rubio's assumption of the presidency. The market resolves NO if this does not occur by a specified date, or if it becomes clear the event will not happen.

Background

In January 2026, President Trump responded to a social media post suggesting Secretary of State Marco Rubio could become president of Cuba, writing that it "sounds good to me!" Rubio, the son of Cuban emigrants born in Miami and the current Secretary of State of the United States, is one of the most hostile figures toward the regime in Havana and has systematically linked the fate of Cuba with that of Venezuela. In his 2012 memoir, Rubio recalled: "I boasted I would someday lead an army of exiles to overthrow Fidel Castro and become president of a free Cuba."

Miguel Díaz-Canel has served as the 17th president of Cuba since 2019. The 2019 Cuban Constitution requires that the president be a native-born Cuban, a National Assembly deputy, and crucially, not hold any other citizenship—automatically disqualifying someone like Rubio, who is U.S.-born and fully engaged in American politics.

Considerations

The 1940 Constitution recognized children of Cubans born abroad as native Cubans if they settled in Cuba and did not prohibit dual citizenship, theoretically allowing someone like Rubio, born in Miami to Cuban parents, to aspire to the presidency. For such a scenario to approach reality would require a regime change in Cuba, a new constitution accommodating the diaspora, a redefinition of citizenship, and crucially, the will of the Cuban people themselves.

This description was generated by AI.