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MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee?
5
Ṁ300Ṁ658
2028
60%
Other
22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
20%
Gavin Newsom
20%
Gretchen Whitmer
18%
Josh Shapiro
15%
Pete Buttigieg
15%
Kamala Harris
12%
Andy Beshear
12%
JB Pritzker
12%
Mark Kelly
12%
Wes Moore
3%
Joe Biden

Resolution criteria

  • Each answer represents a candidate who may win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination for the 2028 United States presidential election.

  • An answer will resolve to YES if that individual is officially nominated as the Democratic candidate for President of the United States at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (or through another official party nominating procedure if no in-person roll call is held).

  • All other candidates listed will resolve to NO.

  • Resolution will be verified via official announcements from the Democratic National Committee (democrats.org) or confirmation across major news outlets (such as the Associated Press).

  • If an individual not currently listed wins the nomination, that option can be added by users (as addAnswersMode is set to ANYONE) or covered by the "Other" option.

  • If the 2028 presidential election or nomination process is canceled, postponed past December 31, 2028, or fundamentally altered such that no official Democratic presidential nominee is selected, answers may resolve to N/A at the creator's discretion.

Background

Following the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, the 2028 Democratic primary is widely anticipated to be an open field without an incumbent Democratic president seeking re-election. Potential contenders frequently cited in early polling and media analysis include prominent Democratic governors (such as Gavin Newsom of California, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and JB Pritzker of Illinois), former 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, Cabinet members such as Pete Buttigieg, and members of Congress including Senator Mark Kelly and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

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Shouldn't this market be set up so that only one can resolve yes?