Will there be an AI "lost manuscript" hoax by the end of 2025?
24
1kṀ7804resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By the end of 2025, will there be a hoax where the mainsteam media (as subjectively defined by me) reports on the discovery of a lost piece of writing by a famous writer, only for it to be later revealed that it was generated by a LLM? Both the report and the revelation that it was a hoax must occur after the creation of this market and before the cutoff point (December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ408 | |
| 2 | Ṁ207 | |
| 3 | Ṁ121 | |
| 4 | Ṁ54 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
14% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
32% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
57% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
67% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
7% chance
Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
8% chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
51% chance
Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
60% chance
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
41% chance