MANIFOLD
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
9
Ṁ170Ṁ254
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
NO

At any point before 1 Jan 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the best available language model be built by someone other than OpenAI? Must be publicly avaliable, via open source parameters or API (which could be paid).

Mar 25, 6:37am: Best available language model from an OpenAI c competitor by 2026 → Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026

Based on current data, the creator indicates they would resolve this to NO, as only Gemini 3 has been ahead of OpenAI's frontier model, and for less than the required 3 months.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ7
2Ṁ0
3Ṁ0
Sort by:

I think the answer should be “no”. Eleuther capabilities index has only Gemini 3 ahead of the OpenAI frontier and for less than 3 months. https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci

It’s not a perfect measure but nothing is.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy